You’ve probably heard that home prices in Silicon Valley generally and Los Gatos specifically peaked earlier this year and have been coming down significantly since then.
How is the market today in our corner of Los Gatos with Leigh High School? Here’s a breakdown of single family home sales in the last 90 days, broken into 4 pricing tiers, starting with the most expensive homes. (I crunched this myself on the MLS tonight.)
It’s interesting too note that most homes are about 50 – 60 years old. Lot size and home size are the main drivers within these parameters. The home’s condition makes a big difference, of course. Properties that are in original or fixer condition will sell for a lot less than those which have been fully or largely remodeled.
If you focus on the sale price to list price ratio, it looks like the hottest segment of this market is in the low $2 millions.
Also curious to me is that the bottom 3 tiers rise in terms of home and lot size and price at an almost predictable pace, while that upper tier is out in the stratosphere by comparison.
Thinking of downsizing?
This info is also interesting if viewed through the lens of someone who may be ready or interested in down sizing. If your home about 2500 SF on a 10,000 SF lot and you’re thinking of “right sizing” to a 1500 SF home on a 6,000 to 8,000 SF lot, how does that shake out? Perhaps your current home would sell for $1.8 to $2 million if all fixed up / remodeled and so on. The replacement home, if you were to stay here in Los Gatos, would be perhaps $1,500,000. After paying off any mortgage balance, closing costs, and capital gains taxes, is such a move worth it? Perhaps not.
If you go across the border to Cambrian for downsizing, that 1500 SF home on a smaller lot will run about $1.3 – $1.5 million today, depending on lot size and condition. Again, that’s probably not a steep enough drop to make it worthwhile for most people after all the other costs are factored in. Hence, may retirees move to places like Sacramento (or nearby: El Dorado Hills, Roseville, etc.), San Luis Obispo, or perhaps where grown kids and grandkids live, if they have been priced out of the market here.
Interested in buying or selling a home in east Los Gatos (or anywhere in Santa Clara County)? Please shoot me an email and we can set up a confidential, no obligation consultation.
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Stop by the Belwood of Los Gatos cabaña is Saturday between 10 and 6 on Saturday, November 10th, and take in the annual holiday boutique! Find items for the holidays, including Thanksgiving, to enjoy yourself or to give as gifts. A wide variety of offerings inclue jewelry, baked goods, photographs, Christmas decor, wine art and lighted wine bottles. ALL ARE WELCOME!
Saturday November 10, 2018
From 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Belwood of Los Gatos Cabaña Club
100 Belwood Gateway (cross street Blossom Hill Road)
Los Gatos CA 95032
Two Leigh High School students, Nathan Viskovich and Kylie Hansen, recently completed an English class project which aimed to have the participants create a positive impact in their community. The Belwood Beautification Project is the end result. Neighbors and friends were asked to donate time and / or money to help. The goal was to collect $2,000 by May 24th so that the volunteers can complete the project on May 26. The goal was exceeded, and the entry to the neighborhood now looks fantastic. Great project and kudos to these students!
You can read all about it and donate to the Belwood Beautification Project on the GoFundMe page.
What’s going on with the real estate market in the Belwood, Belgatos, Surmont, and nearby areas of east Los Gatos? Here’s a quick update of the year to date listings and sales activities, taken from the MLS.
Right now, there are 6 properties for sale in the neighborhood. That’s more than what has been normal in recent years. The stats for these active listings are as follows:
Average list price $2,286,333
Average square footage 2,906
Average lot size 16,194
Average days on market 19
Average price per SF $800.92
Average age 49
There is only one pending sale, and no properties at all in the area which closed in June. We had steady rate of sales closed earlier in the year: three in February, two in March, five in April, two in May.
For those tracking the absorption rate, which is the rate at which homes would sell if no new properties come on the market, this is a bit of a surprise. Zero homes (sold / closed in the last 30 days) divided by 6 active listings = an infinite months supply of inventory. Of course, it is not truly that dire, since there were 2 closings in late May and there’s one pending sale (went into contract June 15), but it does suggest that home buyers may have put the brakes on.
We are seeing this drop in sales activity across the valley in many areas, so it’s not just this corner of 95032.
Is it just a big rise in inventory that is causing the market to stall out a little? In some areas, homes have continued selling at the same pace, but with fewer offers over the last 6 weeks or so. Those areas may not have had as large an inventory jump as we have seen on the east end of Los Gatos.
Here’s a look at the inventory for single family homes for sale in 95032 with Campbell Union High School District (so Leigh or Westmont High) from July 2012 to July 2018.
Inventory is up, but not to an unprecedented degree. There were more in June, and June’s inventory was not too different from most of the recent years (2014 and forward).
A holiday week is often slow, so I would encourage people thinking of selling to not get discouraged. Part of what we are seeing could simply be a seasonal trend – summer is normally a bit of a “slowdown” period in real estate, with things picking back up again in early to mid September. Last year we did not see seasonality at all, as the market was raging hot through December.
If you are interested in buying or selling a home in east Los Gatos or anywhere in Silicon Valley, please reach out to me and we’ll find a time to talk and see if we might be a fit for working together.
The Belwood of Los Gatos community is hosting its annual Independence Day or 4th of July celebration and the details are announced on the Belwood HOA website. (Quick note: A parade begins at Cabana at 1pm. The neighborhood festivities run from 1 – 5 at the cabaña. Read all about it on the Belwood HOA site!)
Please note that since the weather is warm, dry, and windy, the risk of fire danger is high right now. A sign at Belgatos Park warns that viewing fireworks is strictly prohibited.
Got Facebook? If so, you might consider “liking” the Belwood Cabaña page on Facebook. They are great at keeping people updated on neighborhood events (this is not my page, btw). That’s where I first learned that the holiday is being celebrated in traditional fashion.
Another “Bingo and Movie Nights” is planned for this summer for cabaña members and residents of Belwood, Surmont and Belgatos on Tuesday, July 3rd will be Wonderwoman. Friday July 20th will be a Bingo AND movie night, with the featured film being Black Panther. There will be one more on Saturday, August 11th – the film is not yet announced.
Bring something comfy to sit on – blankets, sleeping bags, lawn chairs etc. Popcorn, cotton candy, and other treats are available for purchase!
For more information, keep an eye on the Belwood HOA website page for bingo and movie nights.
The Belwood of Los Gatos, Belgatos, Surmont, and contiguous neighborhoods in east Los Gatos saw strong appreciation in 2017. With a low amount of available real estate inventory and high buyer demand, properties listed under $2 million often saw multiple offers and good overbids. Over $2 million, the market was cooler, but still not too challenging to sell if done right.
Early 2017 was a bit sluggish, with homes taking longer to sell and recording under list price through February. These homes were priced on the higher end for homes in the area, and they were selling during the typically cooler winter months, both of which might have contributed to the slower turnover. By March the market was heating up again with the large majority selling above list price (likely multiple offers) in under a month through to the end of the year. The three that took longest to sell (from March through November) also sold below list price.
Below is the chart of all home sales in the Belwood & adjoining area listed on the multiple listing service for 2017 organised by date descending oldest to newest. DOM stands for “days on the market”. (There was one off-market or private sale of a 1400 SF house on Bacigalupi for $1,250,000 that is not included. It appears to have been a fixer upper.)
Most challenging to sell are the luxury tier properties offered at $3 million or more. In 2017, the house with the longest days on market was in this category. This is normal for the luxury market in east Los Gatos.
In summary, through most of the year there was high demand and quick turnover for homes in the Belwood area in moderate price points. These fast moving homes provide approximately 3-5 bedrooms and list in the price range of %1.5 to $2 million.
If we remove the luxury tier home, a profile of homes sold in this area in 2017 would be along these lines:
Average list price: $1,719,144
Average sale price: $1,758.263
Average square footage: 2316 SF of living space
Average age of home: 42 years
The last couple of months in 2017, prices began shooting up with the news of Google’s expansion into downtown San Jose. The ripples were felt through Willow Glen, Cambrian, and into Los Gatos. What sold for $1,750,000 in the middle of 2017 is likely to sell for significantly more in 2018.
If you’re interested in buying or selling a home in this beautiful corner of Los Gatos, please reach out to me and we can have a confidential and no-obligation conversation / consultation.