How’s the real estate market for the Belwood of Los Gatos, Belgatos and Surmont neighborhoods of Los Gatos?  Today I present some detailed views of the state of the real estate market in 2012, viewed from several angles.   This is a lengthy article, but one I hope my neighbors and would-be neighbors will find very helpful.

Inventory was low across all of Los Gatos and Silicon Valley, and turnover in this corner of east Los Gatos 9part of the 95032 zip code) is never high, so it’s not surprising to learn that a mere 13 houses sold over the last year. Most home owners would like to know whether values are rising or falling, how tough it is to sell a house, and whether or not homes are selling over the asking price.  We’ll have a look at these questions, and more, using graphs I created from our local real estate multiple listings provider, MLSListings.com.

There were 13 closed sales in Belwood, Belgatos and Surmont plus 4 houses that did not sell in 2012

There were 13 sales of houses in 2013 – not too many for a neighborhood with more than 300 houses!  There were four others which did not sell, however.  One is currently for sale, and 3 more are cancelled, expired, or withdrawn.   In every market, no matter how “hot”, some homes do not sell.  This is important to remember.  Too many home owners get euphoric about the sales prices and multiple offers which they hear about.  What’s usually not considered is the “market rejection” that other properties get.  It is a sobering balance to the multiple offer frenzy stories which one hears.

This first graph displays the closed numbers of sales by price point.  This is helpful not just for sellers, but home buyers interested in purchasing here.  Last week I got an email from a resident of Santa Clara County indicating a desire to see properties here with 2200 square feet or more available at under $1,000,000.  Is that possible?  Let’s see.

Belwood, Surmont & Surmont area 2012 closed sales numbers by price point

In the graph above, we find that three properties sold here between $800,000 and $1 million.  We do not yet know from the data anything more about the houses, whether they were small, big, regular sales or distressed properties.  A quick look at the MLS just now shows that all of the sold houses were regular sales except one, a short sale on Belwood Gateway which was in that lowest pricing tier (and which took about 2/3 of a year to sell).

Days on market or average days to sell in Belwood, Belgatos and Surmont area

Next, the average days to sell (meaning to have an accepted purchase offer or contract) for the houses on the market that did sell – not all of those offered in 2012 were purchased! (In every market, there are homes that do not sell.  Most of the time it is because they are overpriced.)

From the time the house is showing on the MLS as active or available, how long until there was a ratified contract?  In most cases, not long at all.  For the lowest price group, the average days to sell is badly skewed by the short sale on Belwood Gateway – that one took 213 days to sell due to transactions falling through and the difficulties of getting a distressed property closed.  When I eliminate the short sale from the mix, the average days on market for the other 12 properties was a very fast 17.  The longest was 66 and the shortest was 2.  The graph below shows the days on market of all sold houses by price point.  Although it appears that the least expensive homes are the hardest to sell, that’s not really the case.  The short sale tilts the average.

Belwood, Belgatos and Surmont areas of Los Gatos - 2012 days to sell average by price point

Average list prices of Surmont, Belgatos and Belwood homes that sold in 2012

What about home values and pricing?  Below, please find the average list price of properties by month.  For most of 2012, the majority of houses for sale ranged between one million and $1.4 million.  There are higher and lower priced properties, of course, but this range gives home buyers a general sense of area values for typical homes.  Newer one, view lots, extra large homes or custom built properties will cost more.  Houses on Blossom Hill Road, older homes, properties needing extensive renovation etc. will sell for less.  Have a look: Continue reading →