Los Gatos housing inventory may well be at an all time low. For other blogs, I crunch the real estate numbers regularly and can tell you that in the last 15 years (for which I can get MLS statistics) there’ve never been so few available homes to buy. I’ve been selling real estate for 20 years now and don’t remember it ever being so dire. In fact, the worst year ever still had twice as many houses for sale as what we’ve got now.
The available inventory in Los Gatos, and Santa Clara County generally, is inching up. The numbers have risen about 25% from a couple of months ago, but are off between 30% and 65% from the year before, depending on how you slice and dice the numbers. In our lovely corner of east Los Gatos, right now there are only 2 homes for sale, one on Blossom Hill and one on a side street at the corner of Blossom Hill. Last year there were 13 sales in the neighborhood, and in 2011 there were 17. We could use more inventory!
If you are thinking of selling in 2013, now is a great time. There’s little competition and a very strong level of buyer demand. Please call me for a free, no obligation, no pressure consultation. Please email me at mary (at) popehandy.com or call me at 408 204-7673.
Los Gatos Real Estate Market Trends and Statistics
A beautiful black kitten or young cat was found high in a tree at Belridge and Harwood Roads on December 31st. He was reluctant to come down, but several neighbors did try to lure him over a couple of days. Thanks to the persistence of two kindly neighbors, he has been rescued, fed and warmed up. One of the residents, Byron, brought the Belwood cat to the Humane Society to check for chipping, but no luck. Is this friendly feline yours, or do you know where he belongs? If so, please call Byron at 408-267-1733.
How’s the real estate market for the Belwood of Los Gatos, Belgatos and Surmont neighborhoods of Los Gatos? Today I present some detailed views of the state of the real estate market in 2012, viewed from several angles. This is a lengthy article, but one I hope my neighbors and would-be neighbors will find very helpful.
Inventory was low across all of Los Gatos and Silicon Valley, and turnover in this corner of east Los Gatos 9part of the 95032 zip code) is never high, so it’s not surprising to learn that a mere 13 houses sold over the last year. Most home owners would like to know whether values are rising or falling, how tough it is to sell a house, and whether or not homes are selling over the asking price. We’ll have a look at these questions, and more, using graphs I created from our local real estate multiple listings provider, MLSListings.com.
There were 13 closed sales in Belwood, Belgatos and Surmont plus 4 houses that did not sell in 2012
There were 13 sales of houses in 2013 – not too many for a neighborhood with more than 300 houses! There were four others which did not sell, however. One is currently for sale, and 3 more are cancelled, expired, or withdrawn. In every market, no matter how “hot”, some homes do not sell. This is important to remember. Too many home owners get euphoric about the sales prices and multiple offers which they hear about. What’s usually not considered is the “market rejection” that other properties get. It is a sobering balance to the multiple offer frenzy stories which one hears.
This first graph displays the closed numbers of sales by price point. This is helpful not just for sellers, but home buyers interested in purchasing here. Last week I got an email from a resident of Santa Clara County indicating a desire to see properties here with 2200 square feet or more available at under $1,000,000. Is that possible? Let’s see.
In the graph above, we find that three properties sold here between $800,000 and $1 million. We do not yet know from the data anything more about the houses, whether they were small, big, regular sales or distressed properties. A quick look at the MLS just now shows that all of the sold houses were regular sales except one, a short sale on Belwood Gateway which was in that lowest pricing tier (and which took about 2/3 of a year to sell).
Days on market or average days to sell in Belwood, Belgatos and Surmont area
Next, the average days to sell (meaning to have an accepted purchase offer or contract) for the houses on the market that did sell – not all of those offered in 2012 were purchased! (In every market, there are homes that do not sell. Most of the time it is because they are overpriced.)
From the time the house is showing on the MLS as active or available, how long until there was a ratified contract? In most cases, not long at all. For the lowest price group, the average days to sell is badly skewed by the short sale on Belwood Gateway – that one took 213 days to sell due to transactions falling through and the difficulties of getting a distressed property closed. When I eliminate the short sale from the mix, the average days on market for the other 12 properties was a very fast 17. The longest was 66 and the shortest was 2. The graph below shows the days on market of all sold houses by price point. Although it appears that the least expensive homes are the hardest to sell, that’s not really the case. The short sale tilts the average.
Average list prices of Surmont, Belgatos and Belwood homes that sold in 2012
What about home values and pricing? Below, please find the average list price of properties by month. For most of 2012, the majority of houses for sale ranged between one million and $1.4 million. There are higher and lower priced properties, of course, but this range gives home buyers a general sense of area values for typical homes. Newer one, view lots, extra large homes or custom built properties will cost more. Houses on Blossom Hill Road, older homes, properties needing extensive renovation etc. will sell for less. Have a look: Continue reading
In case you didn’t see the Belwood of Los Gatos “Bellringer” article, I have asked three neighbors with solar installations to tell us about their experiences. This won’t be a sales pitch – just neighbors telling other neighbors about their experiences.
The panelists are Zeny Seid, Roger Kent, and Evan Culp, all on Bacigalupi Drive.
They will sit at the front of the room and field questions from anyone who wants to come.
I have invited a couple of solar firms to be available for those who would like to talk to them, but the panelists are all just Belwood residents like you and me.
Please do come. I am sure you have questions (like I do) about whether or not solar’s a good idea. This should be a chance to learn a lot from people who have been through all those questions.
Feel free to contact me if you have any questions or suggestions.
Fire in Belgatos Park near Bacigalupi and Westhill Drives, believed started by 3 kids, contained within an hour by fire department
A fire was set, apparently by three kids, in Belgatos Park this afternoon. (Whether by accident or on purpose remains to be known.) Homes were evacuated along Santa Rosa and flames got terribly close to houses on Westhill Drive, but fortunately no residences were harmed by the blaze. Fire fighters arrived by land and air very quickly, and within an hour, the fire was under control.
At the time of its eruption, I was in central San Jose at a listing presentation. When I got out, around 4:30pm, I checked messages and had a text from my friend and wonderful pet-sitter, Trish McCauley, who alerted me to the situation. She also took a couple of photos. At left is one she took from Bacigalupi Drive at the intersection with Belwood Gateway.
Luckily, though, the word got out about the fire via social media, too:
For those of you who are on Facebook, there’s a group called Belwood Area Residents with great info shared. Pauline Wilson broke the news there at 3:33pm today. Photos posted by Dave Klenske of the work going on to contain the fire by air and the smoldering fire too. If you are on FB and a resident, join the group if you haven’t done so already and have a peek at his pics: http://www.facebook.com/groups/105901399446505/
Mention was also made on the Nextdoor site for the neighborhood too by Kate Carr – many thanks for spreading the word! (If you haven’t joined, please do!) Http://www.belwood-belgatos.nextdoor.com.
(Unless you happen to be connected to someone who sees the fire and alerts you, it’s great to get an update by a large group of neighbors such as we find on Nextdoor and Facebook, so I highly encourage everyone to join both sites.)
Back to our household – Jim was out at an appointment at the same time that I was, too, but when we converged at home, he and our daughter, Clair, walked up to the park to see what, if anything, was still going on. He spoke with Ranger Dave Gray, who said that 3 kids (appx age 10?) were seen running from the area when the fire started. Jim also chatted with a neighbor, who said she saw the kids running away and explained that they were “young teenagers”.
Clair, meanwhile, kindly took a lot of photos for me so that I could share them with anyone else who wasn’t around when everything happened. Below are the photos she took for this blog.
“Cardboard hill” is a blackened mess right now.
After several hours of work, the firefighters rolled up hoses and prepared to call it a day.
There were multiple fire trucks and other vehicles from the Santa Clara County Fire Department, but also helicopters and planes from the CDF involved today.
UPDATE: Patch Los Gatos reports today that 3 14 year old boys were involved, one of whom started the blaze using lighter fluid. The teen, a resident of San Jose, was arrested, charged with felony arson and has since been released to his parents. Read the article here:
The market is pretty hot in our pocket of Los Gatos! Here’s what has gone under contract in Belwood, Belgatos, Surmont and very nearby since January 1, 2012. (DOM = “Days on Market”. REO = “Real Estate Owned (by the bank)” or bank owned home.)
|Sale type||Status||Street||List Price||Sales Price||Square Ft||Lot Size||DOM||Sale Date|
|Reglar||Pending||BELWOOD GY||$ 949,000.00||1730||11385||8||4/20/2012|
|Regular||Pending||OLD ORCHARD DR||$1,275,000.00||2736||10209||51||3/27/2012|
|Short Sale||Pending||BELWOOD GY||$ 925,000.00||2251||10240||213||3/30/2012|
|Regular||Pending||BELCREST DR||$ 895,000.00||2448||9875||7||4/4/2012|
|Reglar||Sold & Closed||HARWOOD RD||$1,099,999.00||$1,098,000.00||2804||11036||252||1/5/2012|
|Regular||Sold & Closed||ALMOND BLOSSOM CT||$1,199,950.00||$1,140,000.00||2923||10018||59||3/2/2012|
The home on Belvale had 6 or 7 offers – I know because I placed one of the bids on it for my buyers! There were also multiple offers on the Bacigalupi house as well. Both are said to have sold over list price. Most homes are selling pretty fast now, and at very good prices.
The real estate market across Silicon Valley has really zoomed into a strong seller’s market over the last 3 to 4 weeks. I have been involved with MANY offers, both on the seller side and the buyer side, and almost every single one was a multiple offer situation with sales getting pushed much higher than list price. (This last Monday, for example, I sold a small Santa Clara condo that was not strategically underpriced but it got 20 offers, 8 of them “all cash” and sold about 8% over list price. This is happening all over.)
Want to see more photos and a map? My Los Gatos Real Estate Report can display listings, pendings and sold properties anywhere in Santa Clara County. Click on this link to see what’s happening near our part of town. (It loads a little slowly so please be patient.)
If you’d like to buy or sell a home in the Surmont, Belgatos, or Belwood of Los Gatos areas , please call me! I’m a resident (since 1999) and a Realtor here in Los Gatos with Sereno Group and know the area like only a local does.
mary (at) popehandy (dot) com
It appears that turpentine was on the ground and there was some speculation that a spark from the electric tools seems to have caused this terrible explosion and injury. That assertion was retracted at a community meeting about the Los Gatos explosion March 26th 2012. Please click the link to read the full update.
Yesterday at around 2pm, a large, explosive sound rocked the Belwood, Belgatos and Surmont areas of east Los Gatos. The thundering noise sounded to me like a transformer blowing out – but worse (I was walking down Bacigalupi with my dog at the time). Neighbors wondered what caused it: gas explosion, rifle, transformer, or what? Several of us apparently called police.
When I phoned in, I was told that the Los Gatos-Monte Sereno Police Dept was investigating. They thought that a tree trimmer had hit a power line but weren’t sure at that time.
About an hour later, I came through the area after seeing a post on the Facebook group page for Belwood area residents that the noise originated from something happening in the “class d area” (meaning Surmont/Belgatos). Whatever it was came from a front yard of a house at the corner of Belblossom and Westhill. P, G & E crews were investigating. A police officer was taking a report. And neighbors gathered to share what they knew, thought or experienced with the big boom of two o’clock.
A Belblossom home owner there told me that a gardener was doing something when the explosive sound occurred, that it put him in shock and that his ankle was broken. I was very relieved that he was still alive, as was everyone else there.
At that time, it remained unclear what happened exactly. P, G & E crews were still on scene, investigating.
Today I’m not seeing anything in the news about this, so wanted to share what I had heard (and seen) so far. Wishing a very speedy and easy recovery to the person who was injured. I hope that the P,G & E crews can figure out what happened so that it never happens again.
This last week, a neighbor saw a bobcat come out of the gate on Bacigalupi Drive in Belwood of Los Gatos and head uphill along the road, toward the top of Bacigalupi. Nearby, another resident’s house cat was killed, presumably by the same bobcat.
Please be aware, especially if you are close to Belgatos Park or any big expanses of open space that wildlife may harm you, your children and your pets and take the necessary precautions. In addition to bobcats, we also have racoons, possum, and more significantly, mountain lions and coyotes.
See homes for sale in the Belwood, Belgatos and Surmont neighborhoods here, or call/email me for updated info as I sometimes also know about houses coming on the market soon.
What’s happening in the real estate market in the Belwood, Belgatos and Surmont areas of east Los Gatos? Today I did some research on the MLS for 2011 year to date in this part of 95032.
In the image below, after I completed my work I realized that one of the “actives” is actually on the San Jose side of Blossom Hill Road (the low price home at just under $500,000 – it is a short sale by the way). The numbers tell us that in general a 4 bed, 2 bath home in average condition (that is, partially updated but not “fully remodeled”) is worth just about $1,000,000.
I find the “sum” number to be unhelpful but the minimum, maximum and average sales prices (including the cost per square foot) to be extremely useful.
Let’s stop a moment and just look at what’s closed so far in 2011 – 10 homes – about 1 home per month on average (very, very low turnover).
|sold & closed||BELHAVEN DRIVE||$1,199,000||59||6||3||2,448||10,000|
|sold & closed||BELHAVEN DRIVE||$1,175,000||123||4||2||2,500||10,625|
|sold & closed||BELWOOD GATEWAY||$1,050,000||29||6||3||2,448||10,530|
|sold & closed||BELCREST DRIVE||$999,000||7||4||2||2,131||10,000|
|sold & closed||OLD ORCHARD DRIVE||$975,000||10||4||2.5||2,159||11,934|
|sold & closed||BACIGALUPI DRIVE||$960,000||8||4||2||1,748||10,000|
|sold & closed||WESTHILL DRIVE||$949,950||7||4||2.5||2,076||10,998|
|sold & closed||BELBLOSSOM WAY||$900,000||7||4||2||2,259||10,000|
|sold & closed||BELCREST DRIVE||$899,000||17||4||2||1,960||10,769|
|sold & closed||BELBLOSSOM WAY||$875,000||25||4||2||1,748||9,877|
Next – how long does it take to sell these Los Gatos homes?
As you can see, often there are far more homes available (or listed for sale on the MLS) than are selling. This is typical for all of Silicon Valley but of course to differing ratios. It’s a red hot seller’s market when homes are selling as fast as they’re listed. In most markets, though, some percentage of homes never does sell – it’s a bit like the “bell curve” applied to home selling. Some sell fast and for top dollar, some sell in a month or two, and some either sell only after a prolonged marketing time or not at all.
With extremely low inventory and low turnover, it’s almost a crap shoot as to how fast a home in these east Los Gatos areas will sell. If there’s no other competition and the property is (1) fully remodeled and (2) priced aggressively, it will sell fast. If not, it’s anyone’s guess – but definitely worse if more homes are for sale.
Want to sell your Surmont, Belgatos or Belwood home? Please contact me – I live here too and will do my best to get you the best price for your property!